I can understand the market responding badly to a positive announcement followed by a negative guidance but unless I am missing something, I think it has over-responded. When you look at it, the FY15 original guidance was provided early in February - this from the half-yearly.
'FY2015 guidance is provided early due to ERM Power’s potential bid for Macquarie Generation on 5 February 2014 – the guidance is for “business as usual” and excludes any outcome on a possible Macquarie Generation bid.' - the company is still forecasting 28% and 20% sales growth in the 2 years.
In the half-yearly, they had also already identified that they were considering de-merging the gas assets with the following statement. ‘Assessing opportunities and preparing gas business for a de-merger’
There was also no change between the announcements on the start of the government contract, the first announcement said ‘starting in July, 2015’, the latter ‘starting in FY2016’ – which basically says the same thing.
EPW Price at posting:
$1.98 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held