Some Interesting point you bring up... some thoughts on your points...
1, As has been discussed at length the options despite the selling are being tightly held so IMO many are holding for the ultimate commercial outcome making it hard for a buyer to accumulate. Yes it is a bit like gambling at the moment as an option holder is essentially betting on the future outcome of OEX in September 2015.
2, I agree the trading activity is likely from individual investors as Fund Managers are unlikely to gamble with clients money unless OEX specifically says commercial flow rates are confirmed. The sell off IMO is more about consolidating gains from the 70% + rise over the last week and nervous Nellies scarred something is going to go wrong and cashing out early.
3, In a scenario where there is CR option holders would have time to convert their options to heads to participate in any deal. The price would have to be higher than what it is now or I I don't think many holders will be impressed. The problem though for individual investors is do you have a lazy 150K or more sitting in your bank account to convert say for example 1 million options? I would say the average investors doesn't so this may contribute to options selling at a discount.
OEX Price at posting:
19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held