oct 11-14, page-28

plus side:

VXO sharp drop

put/calls extreme number are long puts on the indecies

Transports maintain high future view daily bars

cumulative NYAD (adv/dec) keeps heading north albeit in a sluggish accompaniment to the indecies

10 day TRIN still signalling a buy/oversold bias

62% of nyse stocks are above their 50 m/a reflexive buying balanced by the laggard # of stocks not above their 200 m/a's

negatives:

TED continues sharp climb north inverse to normal liquidity flows

(spxa200r) the # of stocks participating above their 200 m/a continues to lag suggesting weak breadth

...volumes continue to be thin although this has proven many times that if most of the volume was already shifted in the down drafts, then,does there have to be more volume upwards for price to ascend? No! Does there have to be more volume upwards compared to the sell period? No! Does the major money have to chase to get price to ascend? No!

the question i ask is; is there ever a series of indicators that run concurrently to give true bias, of course, the answer is probably not! that is mostly due to positioning by major capital players who are invariably on the opposite side of weak money and the time factor......there is nothing to suggest, right now, that we wont see higher prices heading into year end with 11 weeks to go with earnings season volatility......if we are to get a major move south in the new year then the move up from here (slightly lower this week) should continue to be volatile and become hard to read longside as "looks like its going down, oh, no, its going up" back and fills, creating a distribution opportunity......i think we should also get some strong releases of short covering energy which will need to be investigated to keep an eye on how thin the participation is as we climb and a good idea to leave playing news releases well alone.......i'm suggesting we'll follow script and fall into the new year the same way september was a slump and october looks like fulfilling it's 'bear-killer' moniker ...that rhyming thing