ADE 0.00% 19.5¢ adelaide energy limited

"Also thanks for the dates re: clean up and flow release date....

  1. 646 Posts.
    "Also thanks for the dates re: clean up and flow release date. so I assume you mean clean up finishing end of next week being in 10 days and then another 7 days until the flow data ? "

    Spot on Rexsh!

    "Thrumy, what are your concerns if any ?"

    Obviously when we talk about "concerns" we can view it from;

    a. What may have a negative short term impact on the SP, and;
    b. What is the downside risk operationally wise (sale wise).

    So, in reply to your top 3:

    Number 1:

    IMO, low flow rates may have a negative impact on the SP but will do very little to dampen a sale. The reason being is that people far more knowledgeable than us (and the market) are the ones with the cheque books. These guys know the industry and the mechanics of what is being undertaken here. They *aren't* the ones that need clarification on what the vertical flow rates, concentrations, lack of water, etc mean, and how they relate to vertical "production" fracking.

    Number 2.

    For me, this is what it's all about atm. Firstly, there is so much fear out there and such a high focus on Greece that even the best of announcements, no matter how blatantly obvious are being ignored by the market. You can obviously see this across the entire index. Reality is that the SP would be above 50 cents and BPT above $150 if the general market was less fearful.

    As far as an actual tightening of the financial system. Well, it's always possible but I personally don't see it happening just yet. This is the worst quarter since this time last year. I think things will likely steady over the coming quarter but obviously no one can state that as a fact either way. It does amaze me though, how quickly sentiment can change in either direction. We are equally as likely for things to be hunky dory by this time next month. :)

    FYI, I personally am shorting the U.S index as a hedge via options and will be more than happy for them to expire out of the money! LOL IMO, if Greece approve their measures than the market will settle over the coming month.

    Number 3:

    Again, the big end of town are looking at this (and similar assets) as an investment for the future. Within the industry, there is a general consensus that prices will be higher when contracts are renewed. I have heard this from multiple sources so it is not an isolated opinion.

    In addition to the above, there are always the usual day to day risks such as blockages, etc. which history shows has a short term effect on SP but little effect on medium term operations, but obviously they still need a mention.

    My biggest concern is that we will get taken out and not achieve full value for the asset. Obviously any takeover offer will be at a much highly level than the current SP but most likely considerably less than the shale asset is worth as a stand alone sale.

    Unfortunately, this is the nature of dealing with small caps. If they do get onto something huge (which we have) then a bigger fish can just come along and swallow them up. The Board certainly won't give it away so we will get a premium if it occurs, but I personally believe we would be better off if we can just sell the asset and develop our other considerable projects.

    So, in summary, IMO, at an operational level this is as solid as it gets as the value benchmark is fairly well defined. It doesn't really matter if we are a bit below or a bit above benchmark value as the multiple is compelling either way.
 
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