I think there is a lack of understanding, If there is a discovery at Paltra, great happy days.....but oodles of water has to flow under the bridge before you can say OXX will be valued as a producer or see any money from any production from Shell. First step is will there be enough gas for a stand alone LNG development, do shell have other finds in the area, where is the window for LNG development, ie: is there a gap in the market 10 years out etc....these are huge long term decisions where they look at what is coming on stream 15 years out. For example Woodsides pluto field was the fastest ever LNG development, at least in Australia....The gas discovery was made in April 2005 and first LNG was produced in April 2012. That is the fastest ever in the region and that is 7 years. Woodside were roundly criticised for being too aggressive. Look at the Pluto development now, it has almost been a marginal IRR/NPV investment because they gambled on finding more gas for multiple LNG trains....they havent found the quantities of gas they planned/hoped. So if you want to value OXX as a producer in relation to the Paltra field you will need to wait upwards of 7 years, possibly more than a 12-20 given regulatory and cost uncertainty offshore WA and the possibly need to sure up further reserves before a development decision. If Paltra is a discovery, happy days for OXX, but again, miles off production.....the market wont see production revenue coming through the door like you claim.
OXX Price at posting:
18.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held