Well the volume came in sooner than expected on Friday and what a great result for the effort exerted. We received 1.27M volume - smack bang in between the 1-1.5M predicted to move $NZC out - and now looking near term to tackle 12 month highs. The result was a very impressive single day upward thrust to test the 40s resistance level - we drifted off the daily high towards close but overall a very bullish result (understandable for a Friday and day traders cashing in at nearest res level). What is needed now is similar volume follow through (which we may expect next week). Such a big move may require some digestion/consolidation under bars A/B - but I wouldn't be surprised to see it rip - the chart will attract a lot of eyes over the weekend! Refer to volume bar A and B. The close of these bars provides a level of resistance (and support once $NZC is above that level). The volume for A/B to be overcome is in the order of a couple of 1-2 million days. Overall, not massive volume - and I don't expect massive volume is required to move us into new 12 month highs based on views below.
Volume analysis - for those interested read on. My take (certainly not gospel). Now if we look at the accumulative volume circled in 1 versus the distributive/selling volume circled in 2 it is noted that overall the cumulative volume in 1 is much higher than 2 - indicating net buyers (and continued holders) from November to now. To me this indicates the registry is even tighter than before the Traxys exit (which you can attribute the spark and contributor to the sell down volume). So it seems that despite Traxys selling and fear on DRC tax reform we have seen net buying - strengthened further by the partnership of Huayou. The T20 controls >90% of the shares on offer - but I believe that the actual free float may be much lower, say 5% or less (10-20M shares). The big large upward spread bar on Friday would indicate this - less effort (volume) was required for a big result compared to previous up moves. Simply we are seeing more people holding their shares as opposed to day trader ladder rotation.
Lots of fuel left to fire $NZC. Heck, hardly anybody knows about this company - look how quiet the HC threads are - wait until you get the $AVZ type herd flowing in here and FOMO - seen it on TAW/AVZ from low levels - results in bags.
What does this mean - if holders are HODLing then peeps will have to pay up to join the party. We can expect more wild big spread moves.
In conclusion, it seems that slowly the value of $NZC is being realized by Aussie investors (and the Chinese lol). Recent negative Traxys/DRC news has been absorbed, weak hands shaken, and the result is a stronger registry with a longer term outlook for their investment. The next 2 months should certainly be an interesting time. Lots of continued ifs/buts/maybes/risk etc but the intrinsic value of this company is being realized. We are all looking forward to the forthcoming option evaluation results - which will focus on cobalt economics, ongoing exploration results, and the game of chess for control between the $NZC board and Huayou.
View attachment 1015582
Weekly chart below. Big dominating weekly candle - very bullish. Interesting to see the bar found resistance at that 200 weekly MA - let's see how it tackles that level in the coming week/weeks - may present a challenge. What we would like to see is a strong cross of that 200MA weekly and see it confirm as support.
View attachment 1015603
Have a nice weekend all.
Exciting times ahead.
