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NZ exports update May 18 & IF exports Analysis

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    NZ overseas merchandise update for May 18 is available now.
    https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/overseas-merchandise-trade-may-2018

    Highlights:
    1. Goods exports rose $509 million (10 percent) to $5.4 billion, a new high for total exports in a May month
    2. Preparations of milk, cereals, flour, and starch rose $60 million (52 percent) to $175 million. This group includes infant formula. (compared to May 2017)
    3. Exports to Australia:  up $86 million (12 percent) to $781 million, led by rises in petroleum and products other than crude oil (up $42 million) and preparations of milk, cereals, flour, and starch (up $38 million).

    As always I tried to crack their open database and hopefully found more relevant and specific information.
    http://archive.stats.govt.nz/infoshare/

    See below table for the monthly exports data since Jan 2017, to China, HK, and Australia respectively. Note:
    - The HS code used is 190110. This group includes IF, and IF should take very large share in this group as I understand it.
    - The numbers represent NZD value.
    exports1.JPG
    The numbers are looking good aren't they? Notable things are HK actually now takes large mount of IF exports, though I believe most of them will end up being consumed in mainland China. Australia imported ridiculous amount of IF last month - it's actually monthly high of all time.

    Below tables are my compilations using same set of data, just to give you guys a clearer view from growth perspective.

    1. Five month to May end data
    5monthtomay.JPG
    Comments:
    - Australia data is monstrous
    - China looks flat but I think it's mainly because the goods are now going to HK before entering mainland.


    2. Larger set of data since July 2015 up till May 2018
    exports2.JPG
    Comments:
    - JUN 18 data is NOT available so not included in FY18 numbers. Should be over 1 billion eventually and the the PCP growth will be higher than 66.24%.
    - Impressive growth everywhere.

    All looking good.
    Last edited by jzhuang: 27/06/18
 
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