Over the next short period we will likely obtain market announcements pertaining to:
·UK Distributorship agreement
·US Trial outcome
·Publication of Trial outcome
·Submittal to FDA
It is of my opinion that these announcements will drastically change how the market views NTI and will consequently move NTI and their Mente Autism device from a conceptual idea into a valuable product with a very large market.
Consider this; the preceding news is coming over the next short period and NTI has a current share price of 20c and a total market cap of under S20 million. Within Europe alone there are 140,000 children with autism representing up to $400,000,000 in potential sales for NTI ($2865 per/u X 140,000).
Let’s be clear – neurofeedback is not new; it is a treatment that has proven benefit in a clinic and all NTI is looking to do is to more comfortably bring neurofeedback into the home for use.
The following 10 references indicate the legitimacy of neurofeedback:
[1]
Prevalence of autism spectrum disorders — autism and developmental disabilities monitoring network, 14 sites. United States.US National Library of Medicine
National Institutes of Health. 2008.
[2] Kouijzer, M., Gerrits, B., Congedo, M and Van Schie, T.
Neurofeedback improves executive functioning in children with autism spectrum disorders. Research in Autism Spectrum Disorders. 2009. Vol 3, Pp. 145–162.
[3] Coben, R and Padolsky, I. Assessment-guided neurofeedback for autistic spectrum disorders. Journal of Neurotherapy. 2007. Vol.11, P. 5–23.
[4] Kouijzer, M., Moora, J., Gerritsb, B., Buitelaarc, J and Van Schie, H.
Long-term effects of neurofeedback treatment in autism. A Behavioural Science Institute, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Research in Autism Spectrum Disorders 3. 2009. P. 496–501. Elsivier Publishers.
[5] Jarusiewicz, B. Efficacy of Neurofeedback for Children in the Autistic Spectrum: A Pilot Study PhD. Pages 39- 49. 2008.
[6] Trevisan, A and P, Cavallari.
A Portable Sonified Neurofeedback Therapy for Autism Spectrum Disorder Patients - An Initial Evaluation. Journal of Neurological Disorders. AAT Research in conjuction with; University of California. USA. 2013.
[7] Trevisan, A., Cavallari, P., Caruana, N., Micallef, R and Attard, F.
Real-time sonified neurofeedback stimulation for the management & relaxation of patients on the autism spectrum. Journal of Brain Stimulation. Vol 8(2). March – April 2015.
[8] Neurotech International.
‘Clinical Trial: 12-week therapy session for initial cohort of subjects in US clinical trial nearing completion”.ASX market announcement dated: 29 May 2017.
[9] Neurotech International.
‘Clinical Trial Preliminary Outcomes: Outstanding preliminary results from US clinical study’, ASX market announcement dated: 27 September 2017.
[10] Neurotech International.
‘Neurotech Presentation at Cambridge Conference: Neurotech presentations at academic research conference in Cambridge, UK’, ASX market announcement dated: 28 September 2017.
Remember these important points:
·Major United Kingdom distributorship announcement to be made in December opening NTI to a market of 32,500 customers at a product unit price of $2865 equaling $98 million alone dependent on penetration ability. I might just add NTI has no competition in the market and its products are patented. Germany, Switzerland and Austria have a target market of 49000, Italy 30,000 and France 33,000. This does not even take into account the USA. I will let you do the numbers! What is important here is the future expected earnings projections that investors quickly do when coming up with a potential market cap for a company upon major announcements. In my opinion this major company ‘face-changing’ re-rate will occur around when full double blind results are announced.
·NTI is to release within the next short period full results of its double blind study. Preliminary results (at the half way mark) indicate clinically significant results described as
‘outstanding’ with many of the children falling back into the range of normal neurological function by the end of their treatment – Dr Ahmed Hankir. What is important to point out again is that there is no other product on the market that provides in home treatment of autism related behavioral disturbances. Once again, I believe around the release of the full double blind results there will be a major re-rate of this company.
·Shortly after the double blind results are announced I believe there will be multiple roadshow and presentation of result announcements that are important for NTI’s exposure onto the wider market that will help to build their authority and subsequent share price. In my personal experience this will be further accompanied by partnership announcements that give NTI as a stock authority which is important to obtain a true share price re-rate. Having traded in many ‘like for like’ companies who were in a similar situation to NTI - in their development timeline - I have found striking similarity in the types of important follow up announcements that are released after a major announcement that also influence share price positively. This is in my opinion only.
·NTI also has a FDA Submission milestone that I believe will drive up NTI’s share price. Although it will only be the submission and not the outcome it still provides for an announcement that will assist with the promotion of NTI and one that the market will start to price in even prior to actual announcement outcome. This is in my opinion only.
·NTI is not in a production phase yet where they are releasing their product widely on to the market and thus are not being evaluated from an output perspective. NTI is being evaluated by development stage milestone outputs. The biggest impending milestone is outcome of double blind study. As a note: 4C’s are the great production stage reality checker – especially for a stock that has moved up exuberantly at the end of their development phase and are then being evaluated on production output in production phase.
·Put simply – there is no other product on the market that is doing what NTI does. The Mente Autism in home device has no competition (in home). It is an incredibly unique product and has a massive target market as Autism related disease affects one child in every sixty-eight. The CEO of NTI has noted in a November 9 Investor call the difficulty of educating the market on a product that has no predecessors. Not only is NTI a small fish with the company only having a total market cap of $19 million the pond NTI is sitting in - is its own. The market penetration NTI is attempting to take advantage of over the next 24 months (within Europe alone is 140,000 representing up to $400,000,000 in sales. This represents a very fast developing pond even if NTI only obtains one tenth of its goal. Within my personal strategy I do not care too much about the realities of production phase results – I deal in development stage companies that go big because investors/traders and punters do back of the napkin numbers that force share prices up to exuberant amounts. I believe when punters do this for NTI it will push NTI's share price up dramatically.
·Currently 50% of NTI patients have undertaken NTI’s Double Blinded Study with preliminary independent comments from Dr Ahmed Hankir of Bedforshire Centre for Mental Health Research in association with Cambridge University noting:
“The Mente Autism device is one of the most exciting investigations this year…The changes observed in autistic children after a 12-week clinical trial is outstanding with many of the children scoring normal range after treatment”.
NTI has also noted whilst the study is ongoing (50% complete) they have observed major positive changes in the children in the active arm of the study and no statistical changes in the control group who did not receive active treatment. Neurofeedback is not a new technology - it is used and proven in clinical settings - NTI are the first to intelligently take it into the home.
·NTI is also back at its pre-preliminary announcement share price of under 0.20c representing a de-risked company without the premium share price.
