CTP (ASX) NT Govt Gives Fracking Ban Green Light

Originally posted by OilGasPlanning ↑

The following is not investment advice and readers should do their own research before making investment decisions which I have to admit is easier said than done.

The Katherine Times ran an extensive article 0n 17 Apr following the Northern Territory Government’s decision to lift the moratorium on hydraulic fracturing.

Reference:-

https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/5347842/fracking-decision-good/

The above article , Combined with the Jemmena response, (Outlined in my last post) , and the recently released AEMO, VIC gas transmission planning report, foreshadowing an increase in the capacity of the APA South West Queensland Pipeline from Wallumbilla, starts to give an insight to the 5 year horizon for the gas industry.

Reference:-

https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Gas/National_Planning_and_Forecasting/VGPR/2017/2018---Victorian-Gas-Planning-Report-Update.pdf
"If there are no other additional developments to increase gas supply in Victoria, there is a possibility that the two pipelines that transport gas south from Queensland – the South West Queensland Pipeline (SWQP) and the Moomba to Sydney Pipeline (MSP) – may not have sufficient transportation capacity to support Victorian demand in winter 2022.“Additional gas supply from Queensland cannot address the forecast Victorian gas supply shortfall unless additional pipelines are constructed”.
“Expansion of the South West Queensland Pipeline and Moomba to Sydney Pipeline by constructing additional compression facilities could increase southbound capacity” so it looks like the (Presently silent) APA may also have a role to play”.

There could be a lot of gas from Beetaloo headed past CTP on its way to Wallumbilla both for export as well as the NSW & VIC markets.

Reference:-

“Origin today said it would resume Beetaloo exploration in NT as soon as practical.”
“The decision allowing exploration to proceed follows a 15-month independent scientific inquiry that found the risks identified with fracking could be mitigated or reduced to an acceptable level, and in some cases eliminated.”

The AEMO Report also gives further insight into possible import terminals at Cribb Point (Victoria) and possibly NSW

Reference:-
“AGL LNG Import Terminal17 – AGL has proposed the development of a floating LNG import terminal at Cribb Point, near Hastings in Victoria”.
“There are currently 23 Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) terminals operating worldwide (for example, Boston in the United States). These facilities are used to supply peak gas demand periods”.
“The proposed import terminal does not include onshore storage. Without onshore storage, the FSRU would need to be nearly empty before an LNG ship could complete unloading. If regasification rates are not well managed, there is the potential for gas supply shortfalls if an LNG ship is late”.
“Utilising imported LNG will provide AGL the flexibility to purchase additional gas from contracted suppliers or spot cargoes to meet any increases in demand”.
“The floating nature of the project allows for the potential to swap the facility if long-term technical issues were ever experienced.”
A similar facility has been proposed for New South Wales.

Not surprisingly, medium term initiatives are starting to emerge which will progressively address the local gas supply shortfall and CTP may start to see long term competition in the market place as a result.

I hope that the forthcoming CTP quarterly at this important juncture will not just be a routine document but give shareholders a much better insight into how well CTP has de-risked the objective of filling the NGP1.

I would also expect to see enough basic information for shareholders to gain a realistic impression of CTP’s potential profitability over say the next 2 years at least.

If CTP trips up during this 2 year period I see an increasing risk of MAC making another takeover attempt so I will be very interested to gain an insight into CTP’s strategic plans for the future with particular focus on adding Shareholder value.

CTP, will IMO need to demonstrate clearly how they will not only survive during the next 2 years but how they will generate enough working capital to develop further with the profit (Or Loss) generated by servicing their NT clients combined with profit from their “30” TJ’s pathway to other markets down the NGP1.

Best Regards

OGP

Expand

OGP, I’d be interested in your comments what do you think of the sales volumes I’ve projected in my CTP valuation spreadsheet in the mereenie thread? It would be great to get your expert thoughts as I know you’ve done the hard work on the pipes. Great work. I’m going to read and study this post of yours again.

I dint think we have too much to worry about in terms of competition for a while yet so gives us a fair amount of opportunity to fill NGP1 and I feel or believe with a bit more capex we’ll make 1 Dec

Cheers

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Last 5.4¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $37.74M

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5.5¢	5.5¢	5.4¢	$114.6K	2.083M

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