TShirt i agree with your theory/figures.....i should have...

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jakspara

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01/02/19

09:54

Post #: 37294788
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Originally posted by TShirt: ↑

Jaks, I like your story and totally agree in principal.
Where I differ is the possible 2P reserves figure.
We currently have a certified resource at 2C of 276BCF. If the whole lot were converting then the industry standard is to consider 80% converting to 2P reserves.
BUT what we forget is that the 276 2C figure includes Queenscliff-1 which won't be converting this time round. Its hard to gauge how much QC contributed to the 276 2C figure. I am guessing about a third. But that is a pretty uninformed guess based on initial flows and payzone.

Regardless of that I am thinking the same price range as you. Its not hard to see $2 depending on the variables of time to further develop the permit plus some recognition that Tamarama represents about 5% of the certified recoverable 2C resource in this permit.

For what it is worth I think 2P may be as high as 180BCF. It could of course go higher due to the new data from T-2/3.

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TShirt i agree with your theory/figures.....i should have clarified my statement further ie. conservatively targeting reserves of 250bcf within the next 12 months (not just from the current wells)......if a favourable farm-in gets the green light and they want to aggressively develop the acreage then these figures get blown out of the water anyway

RLE Price at posting: 11.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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TShirt i agree with your theory/figures.....i should have...

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