Jaks, I like your story and totally agree in principal.Where I...

Jaks, I like your story and totally agree in principal.
Where I differ is the possible 2P reserves figure.
We currently have a certified resource at 2C of 276BCF. If the whole lot were converting then the industry standard is to consider 80% converting to 2P reserves.
BUT what we forget is that the 276 2C figure includes Queenscliff-1 which won't be converting this time round. Its hard to gauge how much QC contributed to the 276 2C figure. I am guessing about a third. But that is a pretty uninformed guess based on initial flows and payzone.

Regardless of that I am thinking the same price range as you. Its not hard to see $2 depending on the variables of time to further develop the permit plus some recognition that Tamarama represents about 5% of the certified recoverable 2C resource in this permit.

For what it is worth I think 2P may be as high as 180BCF. It could of course go higher due to the new data from T-2/3.