Is Purdy's Reward higher grade? Are you just basing this on velvet bags full of nuggets, or on scientifically rigorous bulk sample test results? I doubt it's the latter. So on what basis do you make the contention that Purdy's Reward is higher grade than Comet Well?
WHy would Novo mine a supposedly higher grade Purdys Reward and take a risk? It has a counterparty risk - that ARV cannot meet its 50% of the mining costs, which is a very real risk (look at ARV's cash and cash burn). So why would Novo take a risk on their JV partner being unable to fund their contributions, versus taking on the sole finance risk on their own ground, and keep all the gold? Plus, if they have a secret Tomra science method for making money, why risk losing the competitive edge by working a JV tenement first and lose that edge? Makes no sense to me, but to you it makes all the sense because you are blinkered by some false love of Purdy's Reward.
Dr Hennigh mentions grades as a range because Novo has done insufficient work to quantify the grade and tonnage of the mineralisation much beyond what, in JORC terms, would be an Exploration Target. He mentions he may not be able to quote a Resource figure, which should set off wet alarm blankets for you, if you are expecting something stellar.
Also, look at the grade ranges he is quoting. Compared to Beatons Creek, they are fairly identical except Novo has a Resource at Beatons Creek. At Comet Well and Purdys Reward the upper bound of his grade estimates is on par with Beatons Creek. So, realistically, the Beatons Creek resources should get done first.
The thickness of the units and their orientation and nature (solid rock, not gravel) preclude any fanciful thoughts about easy alluvial mining. Sure, there is 4km of strike, but the continuity is not good enough that all of this would be at the grade range he quotes (and insufficient work has been done) so you have to take 4km x two 1-2m thick gravel beds, with a large salty wet blanket. I mean, you tell me whether this is an economic mining width given it will be diluted to hell once they blast the stuff apart. With 30% dilution from a 3m bench on a 2m thick ore bed your grade range is 0.75g/t to 2g/t. If you have 1m ore in a 3m bench and 60% dilution, it's 0.3g/t to 1 g/t, diluted. So your costs will go up in the thinner areas, which means that not all of the 4km is ore.
The grade ranges Dr Hennigh discusses above is miles and miles and miles away from the dry scorching hot towels thrown around at the end of 2016 when the cheersquad was blathering about Purdy's being 3 ounces. Yes, ounces. Then it was 10g/t. Then it was 5 g/t. Now it's 3g/t at best. I mean, come on, you tell me. Wet blankets all around.
You are also wrong to suggest Novo will have to use Radio Hill. This is the usual Field OF Dreams fallacy Lenigas sold all the chumps who bought in to his meandering strategy; put in a gravity circuit on a 400ktpa sulphide circuit, and Novo will have no other option but to use it. Says who? Lenigas. Not Hennigh. Not Hennigh's team. Not even Artemis Resources. It's a possibility, which still isn't permitted to operate and isn't commissioned. No resources have been defined, no studies done, no trial parcels of ore can even go through it. There's no MOU, or anything. So, no, Novo does not have to logically use Radio Hill.
And like I said last month or last year, if ARV decides to chuck Whundo or Carlow Castle through Radio Hill, then Purdys Reward can't go through, so you're snookered for 2 of 3 cash flow options no matter which way you go. I mean, come on, use a bit of logic here. You can't boil 3 flavours of noodle in one pot.
I am optimistic Carlow Castle's mineral resource will be good. As for offtakes, it is equivocal, as arsenic penalties aren't widely discussed and the saleability is unknown. But an offtake is one option for a PFS, the other being metallurgical treatment and selling intermediate hydroxide or sulfate products. ARV have begun a long process of metallurgical testing; the recoveries are at an early stage and will be refined. The optionality studies in a PFS are probably underway already, but could be some time off.
As for Armada and the Paterson, yes, it is likely ARV will have to JV this ground at some point due to limited resources. So I guess that's a positive?
ARV Price at posting:
7.1¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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