It is quip which has been attributed to the writer Mark Twain, although apparently Twain didn't use those words exactly. But I think Geoffo is implying that the outlook for this company is healthier than the current market pessimism would seem to suggest.
If this interpretation is correct, I tend to agree with the sentiment, notwithstanding some overly-optimistic comments from the management of the company towards the end of 2017 on the near-term outlook. This understandably led to some disappointment when 2018 didn't really pan out as a year to be remembered.
For this reason, it is sometimes best not to pay to much heed to commentary from management when assessing stocks, and instead to try and take a step back, looking to the bigger picture.
The four markets that offer the best prospects for this company would probably be Europe, Canada, China, and the United States. There is good reason to believe that governments in each one of these regions will be spending heavily on water remediation projects in 2019, for the reasons outlined below:
1) Europe- A large number of northern European countries experienced problematic algal blooms on a scale which had not been seen for many years over the warmer months of 2018, and politicians in these countries will certainly be under pressure to make sure there isn't a recurrence of the issue over summer this year.
2) Canada- Like Europe, Canada had severe blue-green algae problems last year, and so the issue is definitely one that is on the radar in the country. Also on the radar in that country is Phoslock itself, which was subject to some glowing media coverage in Canada last year. This good-will towards the product and company of the same name should improve the chances of Phoslock securing more work in Canada in the year ahead.
3) China- Although in 2018 China didn't live up to the hype, 2019 might offer better prospects.
The year 2020 seems to be a key deadline for the Chinese government in its campaign against water pollution: In the Ten Measures of Water, for example, the Chinese government listed a wide range of targets that it expects to have met by 2020, for example, reducing the level of black and odorous water in cities to no more than 10%; At least 70% of water in major rivers suitable for drinking water; grade V water bodies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region reduced by 15%; and so on.
It would appear that China has less than 12 months to reach these targets, which implies the push against water pollution should intensify this year.
4) Finally, the United States shouldn't be overlooked: Last week Florida's governor, Ron DeSantis pledged to spend $2.5 billion for protecting water resources and for the restoration of the Florida Everglades, which- according to this article- is the largest funding package for such a purpose in the history of that state.
Although the problems in Florida attracted much media attention last year, there were also serious problems with blue-green algae in the Great Lakes region of the United States (as was also the case just over the border in Canada, which is part of the same geographic region), one example being the Winnebago Lakes of Wisconsin, where discussions are currently underway to determine the appropriate measures to help improve the situation.
In short, at current there seems to be a very large pool of money floating around worldwide, potentially on offer to companies with the skills and technology to tackle water pollution, and so in all likelihood this should be a busy year for the company.
Of course, if this doesn't eventuate, that would be a strong indication that there is something amiss with the the way the company is being run, but I doubt things are really that bad.
The conversion of those options to shares will probably put downward pressure the share price in the short term, but on the other hand, the company really does need to put those dollars from the options to hire work ASAP, otherwise they risk letting all the work on offer in those aforementioned regions slip between their fingers.
PET Price at posting:
33.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
