True market value is 63 cents a share unless there is a further...

True market value is 63 cents a share unless there is a further deteriation in property values.

But the market only wants to chance its hand at 7.5 cents as of Friday's close.

The fact that we are now at a 40% distribution yield tells me we are pretty close to the bottom. Of course the rental income may decrease again but even if you imagine a further halving from here (real meltdown scenerio) it would still yield 20%.

Ex date for the coming distribution of 0.75 cents will be 31 March 2009.

Macquarie will engineer something to restore value within 6 months is what Macquarie has basically flagged to the market when it was defending the value it carries its satallites on its balance sheet and hence why it doesn't need to write them down.

My bet is Macquarie will engineer a total exit for itself and hopefully all the other shareholders at say 20 - 30 cents a unit or will engineer a total sale of the US portfolio and then embark on aunit buyback to close the discount on NTA.

I thnk they will be prepared to let the US portfolio go for an attractive price but that would still leave a tonne of value to be unlocked on the remaining smaller portfolio.
The management fees mean jack shit to Macquarie in the sheme of their overall profits, its the massive discount of $1.5Billion between the share prive and real asset value that they urgently need to close or at least split the difference with a buyer. This will allow Macquarie to put strength back in its balance sheet and stop the carping from analysts that it should right down the value of its investment in its satellite funds.

We are fortunate that we have Macquarie as manager because they need to act for their own defences against attacks on their shares and reputation. If we had a standard fund manager crowd we would be sitting around watching them sit out the next 2 years sucking their thumbs pulling fees and just waiting for values to improve. Those guys are reluctant to slash and burn the properties they paid too much for. I don't think Macquarie will lose any sleep over stitching up a deal which say delivers a quick 25-30 cents to investors and gets them out with a pile of cash.