Appreciate your thoughts from fundamental perspective - but i think the 2 major issues which also need to be taken into account are:
1. Time value/Timing in Liquidation Scenario - I don't expect/believe the trailing comms can be monetised upfront. The policies most likely have to run-off.
So need to factor in time - and it could be a damn long time depending on the InForce biz mix. The only way this gets monetised upfront is if Swissre decides to come to the negotiating table and a Upfront number can be worked out on the trailing comms due on the IF book. Swissre really don't need to come to the table - so should probably assume base case the book has to run-off.
Wrt St Andrew's book - that depends on the Reinsurance arrangement they negotiated to fund the acquisition. Lets assume Swissre did the ReIns and on similar terms... again - book has to run off
Total IF books running off - may be anything from 7+yrs.
So have to be in this for 7+ yrs to realise gains. Will need a big discount factor for this - will need to run some numbers to see whether current pricing factors in large enough discount.
2. Mkt view in interim - going concern basis - will take at least 3 solid half-year results back-to-back for the market to re-rate. That's putting aside any uncertainty created by changes from outcome of Royal Comm (which may take min 1 year to implement and get clarity on).
My conclusion - no need to rush into this situation. Can pick a little bit up now if FOMO, but IMO this one has a long time to play out.......given the amount of uncertainties (acq needs to be approved) and length of time required for this to play out, there may be better places to put your cash in atm... Cheers
FIG Price at posting:
22.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
