Greggy,Arrow didnt endorse the deal at first; that statement is...

Greggy,
Arrow didnt endorse the deal at first; that statement is incorrect.

New Hope were out shopping their share around for about 6 months in advance.

It took Arrow two weeks to rengotiate a 6% cash increment on the deal, as well as spinning off the peropherary assets into Dart which currently has a MC of $400m.

jacyln,

Could the share price get above the takeover offer this week or will it stay below? Its quite possible it could get above it. But whether it is this week or next will depend on:
a) whether the directors reject it
b) whether there is another bidder
c) whether the market belives independently, that the offer is low ball.

the chance of c) happening is very slim unless the market was aware in advance of a and b. This is so because BOW have not as yet given the market enough mature information with which to value them. i.e the offer is ahead of its time.

If they say no to the offer what will that do to the share price?
Its really hard to predict. If they reject it saying they believe the offer is too low, then their could be a protracted debate about the value of the stock; and management would have to prove why they believe there is more value in BOW.

With $94m in cash its probably unlikely they will do a raising to ward off a bidder.


If there was to be another offer after they say no how long would we have to wait for that?
that depends on a whole bunch of conditions. If Shell and CNPC were to be rejected, I would think it might only be 1-2 weeks before a revised offer gets thrown at them.

The way this offer has been thrown up there, personally, I am expecting that BOW would be inclined to negotiate a small premium on the offer (maybe 10%). The real money is in the fight for the resource. If there is another bidder then BOW is no longer negotiating with 1 party and has some leverage in asking for a higher price - then we might be staring at the $650-750m valuation mark.

If Shell is moving to shore up the resource because of supply concerns; then we are in very good stead to move higher as its possible a 3rd party with supply issues could enter for a bidding war; namely BG.

Fridays Share price predictions?
$1.45


Just my opinion. No such thing as a stupid question.
:)

SF