no v shape recovery, page-35

I personally think the current share price is now entering a range that is broadly fair (give or take 5-10%). The clear down trend hasn't broken and a couple of things would need to line up for me now to take a position. But I will watch and consider if I see an opportune time.

I would preference a momentum break (e.g. ATR breakout) after any bad news that could cause a sell off. For the investor that has ridden it down it is at a difficult inflection point.... do you sell out and move on or continue to hold against the trend. As we know markets tend to random walk and overshoot on the up and down quite often. As stated before I prefer a value and entry point of around $0.85 to compensate for the risk I see, but it is now in a range that could easily present value subject to no further underlying deterioration in collection profiles or new information coming to light. At the current price I could see a total shareholder return of around 10-20% per annum over the next couple of years. There are downside risks but these are reducing at current price levels in my view.