CLH 0.00% 22.0¢ collection house limited

Happy to provide it, at least if it simply provides an...

  1. 590 Posts.
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    Happy to provide it, at least if it simply provides an alternative perspective to consider.

    Hopefully you make more not being in it than having remained in it - there may come a point where this becomes a screaming buy, it's just not there quite yet in my personal view. At least for now you have saved yourself a few cents with a close of just under a dollar and can keep your powder dry to reinvest or consider other options as you see fit.

    If they can get a good new CEO, rationalize costs and synergies, increase the collections and get them in the door earlier, then there will be a strong case for high probability returns that would be acceptable to me personally. A new CEO and set of auditors may end up in a perfect situation to clean up any dead wood in the balance sheet as then it could be blamed on the past. If it was me in that position I would want to make sure I really didn't need to clean out as being new they will only get one free kick to do it. Consequently if it is to come and warranted, then I would expect to see something in the full year. If it doesn't then that could also be a positive sign, but I don't like the odds for now so will leave be.

    Any announcement regarding cash flow performance on the book and vintage make up will help point towards trend continuance of underlying performance improvements, unless it comes from heavy discounting around 30 June 2015 that canibalises future collections and could be used to window dress performance. If their share price dropped a bit further and some of the items I mentioned (which includes new CEO etc.) coincided with a broader bullish market sentiment, then I would seriously consider putting my money into the stock on the development of momentum breakout. At that point I would be comfortable with the odds and risk reward potential. For now I may be wrong, but the odds aren't enough in my favour.

    DYOR
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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