Not questioning your background, merely the distance out you are...

Not questioning your background, merely the distance out you are trying to second guess. Basically the further out you forecast the greater the variance of accuracy and in this case there are so many variables to make it nigh on impossible to forecast. However you could find a theoretical maximum value based on today's values but it bares little relevance to reality when remiss of all other contributing factors, both internal to SFG (and internal to PSD) and external to both.

As for your last question? I would say that I do sometimes wonder.