Nice early retest of horizontal support, page-13

Nordesmic

You could be right.

I am just following the seasonal pattern to the gold price, and this year the rise in the gold price started earlier than in the last 3 years so the decline seems to be about due. The shorters did not seem to have any difficulty getting the gold price lower last Friday night (our time) by around $20 so I think they will be able to move it a lot further down over time.

DCN should be fine in the longer term if it meets its aspirations. But in the short to medium term it seems that the AUD is not going much lower so a fall in the USD POG will have a significant impact on the AUD POD and share price, unless they make the sort of announcements I mentioned above.

I agree with many posters that the OZ economy is fundamentally weak and at some point the housing/population ponzi will stuff things up for the AUD, but I expect that to really hit home after the ALP wins the May federal elections.

Last year the USD POG fell much lower than what I had originally expected. USD POG has had a bigger run and from an earlier date as the market seems to have front run the Fed's decisions. I suspect there could still be one or even two more interest rate hikes before the Fed starts to cut rates, especially if the US sharemarket continues to rally to new highs - they are likely to do that this year rather than in the 2020 US election year.

My other concern with the factors that impact on the USD POG include the weaker demand for gold from the Chindian retail sector, which represents around 50% of world gold demand and other past major gold purchasers (eg Turkey). Indian gold imports were down 20% in 2018, and indications were that in face of slowing economic growth there was also some falling off in Chinese demand. We were lucky that central banks bought a lot more gold in 2018 than they had done at any time in several of the past decades, otherwise I think the gold price would have struggled even more.

Anyway, I have been noticing that the gold COT figures have been getting less supportive over recent weeks, and the amount of gold held by the GLD ETF has also been dropping but only at a small rate, after increasing to over 800 tonnes.

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/

The main gurus I follow are suggesting that the USD POG has topped out and will head to the USD1200-1250 region. It is possible that we will get a bounce this week back over USD1300, as a short term move. A USD POG of 1200/ounce and AUD/USD of 71 cents would result in AUD POG at around 1690, and badly hurt our locally based goldies.

Gold luck with your investments, and I really hope that DCN delivers on its promises. I am fairly confident that it can generate a useful operating profit while it sustains production of 180-200k ounces pa.

Personally I have a large percentage of my portfolio in cash and will deploy it once I think the AUD POG has bottomed or some bargains appear. I may raise some more cash since I still have a bit over half of my funds in goldies, in particular aspirational RSG which could do a runner if they deliver even at a lower gold price.

If one want to get a positive spin about the near term direction of the USD POG, then Gary Wagner has provided some hope in this recent video



loki