Morning Osi,
as far as massive economic change coming - I don't think (bar perhaps timing) it matters a great deal if Trump or Pence or Daffy Duck is President of the US - nor do I think it matters if the Reps. or Democrats run the place ---- something has got to give - and, when it gives it will probably wipe out all we know - and, at min. have massive effects on the world outside the US as well.
Over the top of the mess they have atm -- there is something far larger anyway looming in the next ??? 20 to 50 years - and, the world is just going to have to grapple with it - even though it either hasn't noticed or is avoiding the issue - and, that issue (I am not calling it a problem - because it's only a problem if you look at it as a problem) -
is robotics and automation --------- at some time - be it in 50 years or 200 years - but, I suspect far closer than we think - human labor will be almost, if not completely replaced with machines - including thinking -
now - to me, that's going to take probably a completely new economic and social system to be able to work within that.
And, maybe that's what a global economic collapse will do - it might bring into focus all of that and more -
because people are going to have to exist and be allowed to exist. They will need all the usual - shelter, food etc. etc.
And, if they don't have income from labor - then, under the current system - if they don't get money from social safety nets - then, A. they cannot survive without turning to crime and B. if they have no money - they cannot spend it - meaning that business is zip
So - something new has to come into being.
Does it sound like the Trumps or Pences or Shortens or Howards or Turnbulls or Morrisons of the world could get across that and get something going?
I seriously doubt that one.
To me - it's the one thing that I have seen that the world really needs to come together and cooperate on - because the 'issue' is far bigger than anything I have seen in history - including world wars ----------- perhaps with the exception of the threat of global nuclear war - but, even that could be pulled up by a couple of people on the ends of a phone line saying - 'ok, we stop if you stop'
whereas - the march of technology is unstoppable - people think it's a long way off - but, it's knocking on the door right now and in many cases it's already in the room.
Ditto the economies of many countries - now, right now - they are beyond fixing by what we shall call harmonious methods --
they rave about the US economy -------------- well, whoppee ---------- hey fellas - I can tell ya - it's easy to have activity when you have got a limitless credit card in your pocket -- and, you have a 23 Trillion dollar credit card debt and it's rising ------ and, the US isn't alone - many parts of Europe etc. etc. (check out Luxembourg for an interesting economic read).
Now, maybe, magically - it will just keep going - because lets face facts - the numbers atm are so big that they are meaningless anyway (try fitting 23 Trillion on your pocket calculator and see how you go) --
however, the march to automation isn't meaningless - it's got massive meanings - social change of historic and prehistoric proportion -------- just for starters. Economic change of ditto proportions -
some day - some political leaders and governments are going to have to handle this - and, not too far away either.
It's not like we can just keep chugging down the track for the next 20 years and find that the elephant in the room is so big it's r's is falling out the window - and, we say 'oh, golly gosh, I guess it's time we do something'
maybe we will be able to sit down and work out a completely new human social and economic system in a few days -------- well, I have doubts that humans can do that - but, hey, maybe the technology will be the saviour anyway and AI will be able to nut it out for us in a few minutes
we shall see ------- either way - Trump, Pence or someone else? - I don't think it matters. Trump is rooted in the 1950's, Pence is probably similar - and, most politicians still think it's somewhere between 1950 and 1990.
On other issues - different story of course.
Most likely the big problem is that even if leaders did know the state of change - and, even if they did know what to do - then, I suspect that whatever required changes were needed would be impossible to sell politically - because people are in fear of change and would and will (you can see it on HC) - resist that such radical changes are upon us and that necessary large changes are required --
'unless' we have a crisis ----------
- and, that, is what might be exactly on the cards.
have a great day
Pinto
