Hi Alet, the 25-30% chance of geographical success is determined...

Hi Alet, the 25-30% chance of geographical success is determined by multiplying the estimated percentage of success of four criteria. (Trap/seal/source/resevoir).

There's a 5th criterion too, that then attempts to measure the commerciality of the enterprise, so, even if our 'Pg' gets over the line, our 'Ps' may not.

There are a number of easily understandable articles written around this... here's one even I could understand.

https://www.ogj.com/articles/print/...rking-the-chance-for-exploration-success.html

Spiney has another he might share?

The metrics seem vague to me, but the reward comensurates the risk we hope... otherwise we wouldn't be here.

Want a real risk/reward play? Have 10 pence on RMP, and hold on!!
A duster with Winx will hurt us (and OEL), but it will hardly be a death knell.

All the best.