yes Autosime, am willing to keep buying, if some of the hedge...

yes Autosime,

am willing to keep buying, if some of the hedge funds sell it down to issuance price (or below given the fee payable......)...

I am assuming:

1. -10m this yr (excld abnormals)
2. another 12-18 months to rebuild customer numbers for theme parks
3. no new topgolf sites for at least 18-months
4. steady performances out of cinema and distribution.....

incld the issue - I get circa 280cps, and 3.10cps if theme parks rebound more quickly .......

to answer your question - agree, that is the most likely outcome in this ttype of market .......

of the toto issued, approx. 52-55% is "locked up, so really only will see perhaps 10-12m of the issue "come out" ......given trading price prior, and 5 for 26.........they would have to sell above 200-205ish to make any money ......

I did note a large number of "small trades" going throu pre issuance (like 2 weeks prior) .....suggesting many small parcels ?

pretty bomb proof business .......and (imho) still plenty of fat to be trimmed (GM's in lots of "departments" inside the co)......

wont blow up (unless they had their own park incident), and int coverage post issue is adequate (imho)......

so - I do like the rebound story.......its not a truly "great" business......but it its better than average ......

growth op's remain (steady roll out of new cin locations, top golf......china...etc), kicker in terms of surprises would be AAD selling their park to the mob that bought syd asset .......this would put an immediate number on vrl's park (circa 380++m)......

nice opportunity (again imho)..

rgds
Value_Hunter