I had to re-read this several times to understand the point. The dilution factor is a moot point because the entire deal is done in USD so whatever macro-factors are present to cause dilution, will inherently be present in the fundamental value of the deal itself/the profitability of the project in terms of AUD. So happy to acknowledge that point as long as we not discrediting a weakening AUD in 6-12months time.Secondly why would MGI execute a deal worth 5M (USD) and subsequently liquidate their share holding cratering the remaining value. It's not as if they can sell 10m shares without it going un-noticed.
Furthermore, given the amount of cash that has been thrown at VEC it appears they were fending off loan facilities. I'm sure if MGI wanted to liquidate 5m worth of shares our friends over in Dubai who were waving 35M at us and also Medea with a further 20M and FT general who we went with for 35M would be more than happy to acquire them. This desire would be exacerbated by the fact their current conditions for conversion occur at 25% - 50% premium to the share price VWAP.
Long story short MGI could sell the shares at a higher value to the debt facilities than on market, and debt facilities could purchase them for cheaper than the tranche drawdown conditions.
Appreciate the constructive conversation.
SF2TH