My guess is that VAH don't just want HNA on board for the 13% to 19.9% equity increase and the strategic links into China. There are potentially other benefits from bringing HNA on board.
VAH might want HNA to start a bidding war with the other "partners" in VAH for total control of the company. Etihad, SIA, and HNA won't want each other to take over VHA and might each launch competing takeover bids. Anyone holding VHA stock would be the winner from this scenario.
Or perhaps VAH wants HNA to strengthen the existing Mexican standoff where each of the "partners" in VAH maintains a stock holding large enough to block compulsory acquisition and a full takeover. In this scenario Borghetti remains in control by balancing out the opposing forces. Divide and conquer.
I think the second scenario is the most likely.
Eventually one of the partners might pull the takeover trigger, but they will have to make an offer so good that nobody can refuse if it is to be successful. What thrill seeker would want to pay top dollar for a company that is struggling to make a profit and carrying excessive debt in an industry that is famous for its volatility?
Of course the FIRB might have to get involved in any take over attempt and that throws another variable into the equation. Will FIRB allow HNA, SIA, or Etihad, or even our friendly kiwi cousins to take full control of VHA?
I must confess that I am enjoying watching the corporate maneuvering and I look forward to the next battle in this air war. I would like to be able to watch the VAH board meetings. They would be entertaining.
VAH Price at posting:
29.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
