Nice Inukshut nice. Well summarised. Our independent directors...

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Jonric

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13/08/18

17:03

Post #: 34905411
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Originally posted by Inukshuk ↑

Agree strongly with the sentiment above. The market does not have all the material information to make an informed decision - and the board, in making the recommendation for all to sell, has demonstrated it is not acting independently. Some information we do know (from quarterly and latest presentation):
1. End of June Cash of $15.264 M USD (~ 20.6 M AUD @ 74 FX) & Nil debt
2. Expected Cash inflow from last lifting (July 4) is 6.1M USD (~8.2 M USD).
3. Estimated Actual Cash now ~ 28.8 M AUD (I am assuming July costs are subtracted from lifting revenue, so cash at bank is per above).
4. Cash backing per share ~ 6.8 cps (426.6 M shares)
5. Production - 2 additional liftings (sales) this quarter. No volume provided but you'd expect similar volumes to the one on July 4th (and hence similar cash inflows). We are told Q1 revenue should be 13.4 M USD (~ 18 MUSD). Adding another 10 M to cash above results in cash backing of 9.1 cps (the current offer).
6. Operating margin on production > 36 AUD$ per bbl (see latest presentation on web site). Oil price rising & production increasing (so will margin).
7. Hedges at low prices rapidly unwinding so cash intakes will increase in face of higher oil prices.
8 Production Volumes increasing.
9. Franking credits of 69.7 M$ valued at $0 under RISCO offer - yet company is debt free with cash building, indicating prospects for dividends are rapidly increasing. Not sure how that can be gifted away.
10. Exploration upside with active explorers (including Quadrant).

Sorry - why would the recommendation be Sell at 9.1 cps ?

I am really happy for TAP directors to have BOD perform an updated evaluation and let me know what the new range is. That said, I'd dig into the numbers that are presented.

Not a seller under 12 cps. Buying.
DYOR.

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Nice Inukshut nice. Well summarised.

Our independent directors are silent and abscent.

The value of the franking credits really nails it home for me.

This is a low ball opportunist offer, make no mistake.

Im also ok at 12c minimum.

TPA

TAP Price at posting: 9.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Add TAP (ASX) to my watchlist

Nice Inukshut nice. Well summarised. Our independent directors...

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