OEX 20.0% 0.6¢ oilex ltd

News: Oilex sees “significantly improved performance” in Cambay 77-H well, page-60

  1. 1,409 Posts.
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    Options are looking relatively cheap atm.  
    They look so cheap that I'm seriously toying with the idea of topping up ......
    ..... but are they good value or has the risk equation turned against them i.e. a trap?   
    What chance of the heads topping 15c any time soon - especially with a potential CR looming?  

    Even with modest/positive news & a decision to proceed with 78H, the need for a CR is a Damocles sword - only the QR will resolve.

    Unknowns
    Financials (to be revealed in next QR):
    . Cost of additional work performed on 77H - how many $M?
    . Receipts for oil/gas recovered & sold + volumes (flow rates!!!)
    . Bank balance at end quarter
    . Corp Spend for 14/15
    . Budget for 78H
    . Liquidity going into 78H

    Knowns - not much.  
    . Not enough not to be able to better manage the risk - but ....
    . Just enough to remain confused and uncertain.   

    What is patently clear is that we need an unambiguously (hopefully positive) ann with actual numbers before the release of the QR.  A naked QR going into the AGM could really spook the natives. The next QR is listed for release 29/10.

    OEX AGMs have normally been held by mid November, of course this is not set in stone - but there is a requirement for one month's notice of AGMs. This would suggest notice of the AGM by the end of this week - anything later and it really starts to look like OEX is playing for time to get some actual/reliable flow numbers together.

    (apologies for the unfocused ramble - on a re-read, I started out OK going in one direction but inexplicably changed tack mid way)
 
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