Yes, I'm very well aware of that, having worked in china for 5...

Yes, I'm very well aware of that, having worked in china for 5 years or so. Nobody can predict what any company would or could do, but on balance, if the chinese shareholders didn't launch a t/o when IO prices were high, they are less likely to do so when the world is in oversupply.

More importantly, many chinese companies, but certainly not all, were naïve enough to believe they could get the IO at transfer pricing based on cost. The reality of operating in Oz has now brought the reality of arm's length trading home (even so, you'd be surprised how many chinese investors/companies still believe they can mine IO here for under $20/t and get it into their mills at that price (+shipping).)

Of course, all things are possible but, as I opine, on balance it is unlikely, all things been equal.