Don't worry anthill; I'm no professional at this myself (entirely self-taught) - good thing Fire Bull is answering your questions! It seems that you're picking it up in no time though.
On another note, it's worth noting that the 4C would most likely reflect the purchase of the analytics group and potentially the costs of the capital raising. I believe the following sources of information are more valuable:
- the pro-forma P&L in the initial spin-off/CR
- the pro-forma balance sheet listed in the Arte Mobile acquisition Capital Raising
- the guidance and historical growth rates given within the AGM presentation (no overall group guidance, but there's enough information to figure it all out)
- the change of directors interest documents lodged (for all 3 directors and Terry Cuthbertson)
Regarding the balance sheet - I'm wondering if the 3.8m of "Intangible Assets" are in fact Customer Contracts. In case you're not aware, when a company acquires another, it must list the existing customer contracts as an asset and amortise them over the duration of these contracts. This means that accounting earnings aren't truly reflective of cash earnings until these contracts are no longer on the books - even though 95% of the time the customer will renew the contract. Given the stickiness of customers in this field, I'd hazard a guess that these customers won't leave once the current contracts expire.
(You probably knew all of this anyway)
And finally - if you want a REALLY good idea of what to look for in spin-off situations, please read "You can be a stock market genius" by Joel Greenblatt. I think it directly applies and is well worth the read. (In particular, read about John Malone and Liberty Media - that part of the book blew my mind!)
It will also go some way to explaining the buy/sell ratios you're seeing on market.
Happy to attempt to help with any questions you may have (if I'm able to).
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Don't worry anthill; I'm no professional at this myself...
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