@sailnyssa, @MarkieMills, @Germantheologist and @roadkillgourmet...

@sailnyssa, @MarkieMills, @Germantheologist and @roadkillgourmet channelled their inner contrarian and did well.
We also tried to give courage to the disheartened with somewhat limited success.
At my average price of 63c this was a very easy descision. At the time the valuation was of the Australian business and the U.S. business was free.
There was very little risk at that price.
I want to avoid skiting but I think we have earned the right to have our opinions on this subject treated with respect.
It's my habit to sell things cheaply, not account for growth. Now that the shareprice has doubled the market is valuing the U.S. business at something.
It's hardly overvalued but the recovery is not there yet either.
I am actually fairly impressed by Crescent they have done what they said and backed the business. Yes they feathered their nest, i don't approve but they all do it.
As Markiemills predicted they locked in their options at the low price. They are saying a new CEO in about a year so we can expect the hatchet job to continue with another year of poor results.
My feeling now is that the shareprice is about where it should be for this stage of the recovery - I should hold for another year at least. It's now 37% of my portfolio but I like holding a small concentrated one. There's very few things I am confident enough to buy and when I am sure I want a lot.
That's a fair chunk even by my standards though.
The shareprice has run ahead of the turnaround but my inclination is to tune out for another year. Just stop watching because its highly distracting.
It may go up and down but it still doesn't mean anything.
I was wrong about the buyback, someone cottoned on to this and bid the price up majorly so Crescent are locked out. That's why I shouldn't try to predict the shareprice - it's pernicious.
There was no "positive catalyst" and we didn't need one.
What are the upper echelon of Cardno investors thinking on the prospects/valuation of Cardno and why? With upcoming asset sales and cashflows perhaps Crescent are going to suck capital out and free float their holding. That's the sort of thing private equity thrives on.
Anyway rising shareprices always make me worry and double check things, it's the right approach.