No I didn't miss your point. I would say there are three factors...

No I didn't miss your point.
I would say there are three factors affecting the price on Monday.
1. the massive dilutionary effect, more shares on issue will push the price down.
2. If everyone "knows" that 1. is true this knowledge (like most conventional ideas on the sharemarket) will act to counteract itself.
Buy selling before the raising and buying into the raising what these people are doing is decreasing the shareprice before the raising and increasing it after.
If everyone acts on what they know in this way it makes buying before the raising the way to go.
3. Sentiment, if the price of oil rises on Monday CDD will probably rise. This has little to do with how much the business will earn through the cycle.
Sentiment is the wild card, there's no way to predict it.
That's why traders betting on short term price fluctuations do poorly and long term buy and hold investors who pick good companies do well. It's not possible to predict where the shareprice will be in Monday or 6 weeks from now and trying to do so makes people terrible investors as they are taking their idea of value from the shareprice rather than the business.