I think your close, in a more stable macro market a return to $17+ in the ST would be feasible.
When you consider the recent favourable forward looking forecast update and with the market being forward priced the above figure no doubt could be achieved.
However it will all get down to trade/trump/US interest rates in the ST to MT IMO, LT ship is turning.
All the best.
BAL Price at posting:
$7.74 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held