News: BAL Bellamy's Australia Expects Additional One-Off Inventory Write-Down In H1, page-227

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bensh10

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12/12/18

14:44

Post #: 36834393
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Originally posted by bensh10 ↑

Good Evening.

ASX took the first step today (ahead of US) on the view that a market reversal is underway.
Milk sector did good enough. But could do a bit better.

ASX received the signal from US, but was understandably a bit cautious not to go ahead too much before seeing the US market actually doing it.

Examples are:

A2M tested the waters near the break out line (Today $10.60). But did not attempt stepping over the line.
BAL tested the upper bound of its short-term downtrend channel (Today $7.70), but remained inside to see what US will do next.

Market (as a whole) seems to know the buy zone (ASX 5600, BAL low-mid $7), but is unsure of the sell zone (hence not risking it until it receives clear direction).

For BAL, there were three key points (Today's values only):

(1) Partially filled gap: $7.43-$7.45 which is currently acting as the new base (unless broader market breaks down)
(2) 20 EMA and Upper Bound of the Short-Term Downtrend: $7.70
(3) Upper Bound of the Wedge: $7.99

I bought more today around $7.50.

My plan for the day was to sell just below (3) around $7.90, and buy-back at retracement just below (2) around $7.65.
In hindsight, market was more cautious than that, and a rational plan was to sell near (2) buy back near (1).

In any case, I am positive we are seeing a reversal here.

If nothing goes crazy, we should see good price action for BAL in the next couple of days; and another try to break above the wedge (which hopefully will last this time, but that's something to discuss later).

As for the gap, it was ideal if it could close it (but there was buying pressure there and it couldn't).
The gap may just stay open for now.

Both longs and shorts can abuse the gap.
Shorts can do an attack and day traders sell thinking the gap is coming. Longs can buy just above the gap, knowing there is a force helping them to get a fill.

But probably we should not read too much into that 2c gap, at least for now.

Have a nice weekend everyone.

Expand

One day delay. Expected this to happen yesterday.
Today it tested (is testing) the waters near the upper bound of the wedge ($7.80).

Breaking above perhaps needs some positive overseas market action tonight.
If happens, the next question is can it sustain it? Is Santa putting on his red (I mean green) cloth?

On the positive side, $7.40-ish seems to have established itself as support, and did not break even when ASX broke 5600 the other day.

Last edited by bensh10: 12/12/18

BAL Price at posting: $7.73 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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News: BAL Bellamy's Australia Expects Additional One-Off Inventory Write-Down In H1, page-227

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