AQC 0.00% 14.0¢ australian pacific coal limited

Not sure if Anglo would have sold the mine if it was one of the...

  1. 214 Posts.
    Not sure if Anglo would have sold the mine if it was one of the lowest cash cost mines in the world and only needed $15-$25m to convert to open pit and get into production with 5mt. I would think the all in cash costs are quite a bit more and capex is significantly more than that (but need more information to determine).

    In my view thermal coal prices will need to rally quite a lot to get this to work.

    However, given a significant number of current coal mines are currently loss making, I think there is a good chance coal prices will rally in the medium term.

    To me, this is a punt on a recovery in coal prices with a guy who has been a proven money maker in the past.

    But if coal prices don't rally then I think it is highly unlikely this mine works.

    WHC has a market cap of c.$700m (this is with mines in production, after significant sunk capex, significant resource and good quality thermal and semi soft coking coal) and I would guess that if you added virtually all the coal juniors listed on the ASX (most of which have market caps of $10-40m) then you will get less than $500m.

    Plus to get the current market cap you need to deduct the capex, use an NPV given production is unlikely until 2019/2020 (best case) and then add a significant discount for the risk around coal prices, permitting, timing, capital requirement etc.

    But all that said, still think it is a reasonable punt at current levels in a very unloved sector -> BUY.
    Last edited by OllieB: 31/12/15
 
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