I used to own AMA as well when it was trading in the 50c range but sold out about a year ago at $1.03. Since then they have acquired more businesses but the SP has traded in a range of 90c-$1.10 which should indicate the EV/EBITDA multiple people are prepared to pay for AMA is shrinking quite quickly.
The benefits of collecting easy capital returns, from a business conducting a roll-out strategy, seem to have been collected by those who invested prior to the Gemini transaction. I suspect a lot of the industry 'consolidation' will come from smaller players, approaching retirement, closing their businesses and making money from renting/selling the freehold from where their businesses operate rather than selling the actual business.
I agree there are headwinds AMA is facing which makes it a less attractive investment now (such as what you describe above). Another factor is that the younger generation today (who make an overly large contribution to motor vehicle accidents) are driving less today than previous generations did at the same age.
AMA Price at posting:
$1.01 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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