A strange/weird logic. Where would you get this '30% chance of serious(what would be not serious) takeover bid' ?
And then suggest HZN would 'probably win out' anyway? Is this a merger or a takeover from HZN? Appears like us ROC holders have been royally shafted if this is so. Oh, but you did add that ROC would drop 5% and HZN increase by the same if 'the merger' doesn't go ahead. Well I can only bow to you my fortune teller.
From AFR street Talk
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Martin notes a
report in The Australian Financial Review that a global private equity firm, keen to invest in Asian exploration and production players, has emerged as a potential bidder for Roc Oil.
This is the second approach that has been made to Roc after the company confirmed another unidentified party approached it on June 25.
“Oil and gas private equity is relatively thin in Australia and Asia with very few firms investing in the sector,” Martin writes in a research note to clients.
“That said, internationally the sector is very mature, with a number of specialised oil and gas private equity firms operating in the US and Europe, as well as generalist private equity firms who invest in energy investments.”
Martin points out that Roc is trading on low cashflow multiples “which enhances the likelihood of a deal being backed by debt ... enterprise value to EBITDA multiples of less than two times are the lowest in our coverage universe.”
Martin says it is “certainly plausible” that a genuine private equity player is seriously assessing Roc.
“Roc is a highly generative cash business with oil production from a number of assets. It would make a solid platform to grow in South East Asia, given its diversity in production, cash position and its ability to take on modest leverage which could be attractive to private equity.”
Martin notes this second approach increases the likelihood that the $800 million merger with Horizon Oil will not proceed as planned.
Roc Oil has conceded the Australian Securities Exchange should consider making changes to a rule that allowed the oil producer to strike a merger deal with Horizon Oil without a shareholder vote.
On Friday, Roc withstood a challenge from its largest shareholder, fund manager Allan Gray. It called an extraordinary general meeting in a bid to change Roc’s constitution and allow investors to vote on the Horizon transaction.
