new year, new debt restructure, page-9

So I've done some highly superficial calculations of outcomes for the March quarter. Assumptions are:

-that we average costs in Dec quarter over low end predicted outcomes in Mar quarter.

-In line with previous quarters we assume the total cost/oz is ~$400 more than the gross cost. This has been oscillating between 300-400 so I'll be negative and assume $400

-Ignoring(!) the gold load repayments of ~4000oz/quarter on average. And every other expense for that matter.

So for 16000oz at Simberi we do indeed get $860/oz gross.
But for 23000oz at Gold Ridge we get $1075/oz gross. As indicated in the document, there's more to improving outputs at G.R. than just turning up the wick.

It turns out that Income After Obvious Expenses (I haven't included any upgrade costs so let's not call it profit) for the Mar quarter is roughly:

$4mill at $1500/oz
$12mill at $1700
$20mill at $1900

So in the short term we're painfully reliant on a good price of gold to get a decent chunk of money into the coffers. You can see that $1500/oz can almost be thought of as a "breakeven" point.

If they're going to bust another 26mill on the 2->3.5Mt and 18mill on the diesel conversion, they're going to want external factors to stay just peachy to afford it all.

I thought the last quarter would be the one where everything turned around and kicked into gear, but in fact the previous quarter was far better. So the Dec quarter has caused things to get worse for the company. The Mar quarter needs to be good just to "get back to zero", so to speak, and the Jun quarter needs to keep it going to regain some optimism.

6 months of no stuff ups. That's what's required

Feel free to argue my figures. I'd love to be wrong.