truly, you do know what you are doing.I applaud that. I am still...

truly, you do know what you are doing.I applaud that. I am still waiting for a snapshot of that spreadsheet file however. hehehe...
More importantly than worrying about a certainty regardless of conditions is J. Granthams quarterly letter. Now, being familiar with Grantham and his writing over the years many were critical of his stance in 1999/2000. How he didnt partcipate in the tech boom and rightfully called a bubble. Alas, he is at it again. Written on the 27/04 (recently) he goes on saying and rationally that "its bubble time". Titled: "Its Everywhere, In Everything: The First Truly Global Bubble" -we are taken on his clear thinking of erratic global events. I am not exiting and heading from the hills in the securities I hold. Great positions in outstanding companies are and should be held forever [as with the companies discussed on this thread and many popular others]. Just some important bits that should be soaked up throughout the reading.
Bubbles of course, are based on human nature: perfect conditions create very strong animal spirits. Widely available cheap credit offers investors the opportunity to act on their optimism. This thought is universally shared. All global assets reflect this and are overpriced and show probably for the first time, a negative return to risk taking. **Global credit is more extended and more complicated than ever before so that no one is sure where all the increased risk has ended up. Every bubble has always a bust. The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets. Since no similar global event has occured before, the stresses to the system are likely to be unexpected. The heart of the bubble this time is probably private equity. Of course the tricky bit, as always is timing. Most bubbles like internet stocks and Japanese land go through an exponential phase before breaking, usually short in time but dramatic in extent. He admits that this bubble has not reached this stage yet, in which, conservatives (or pessamists in the eyes of the all the time rosy believers) will take considerably more pain in sitting on the sideline. So be it.
Although being criticised for not making profits and sitting on the sidelines, Grantham outperformed his peers and those who mocked him the years after the tech bubble when they were in it. A clear thinker who lets the noise of others never get in the way. Someone to take note of and clearly a great read.