I'd estimated a cash margin of around A$16.4m. I think the big ticket differences are:
1. I estimated cash margin @ 99.17-72 = 27.17 vs 103 - 87 => 626kt @ 11.17 = -7.011m
2. I estimated sales volume 626kt vs 586kt = -0.64m
3. Inventory investment looks to be around 5.1m vs 4.1m = -1.0m
4. Payment of dividend = -5.8m
5. Approx cash sunk in capex, royalties, overheads and every other mystery :
Total cash movement - 6.7m
Notional inflow 16.4
Gross outflow = -23.41
less rationalised above -14,451
Unexplained difference = 8,959
6. Maybe we're taxpayers. That might account for some of the unexplained.
7. They bs on about the tailings dam ... it is i think it is a black hole where cash goes and any sin needs to be 'washed'
8. Weather halted production ... bs. They produced about the same pellets this quarter as in March .
9. The real tragedy lies in the ore bcm vs concentrate produced. 328447 bcm -> 567132 t vs 302267 -> 664257. That means a lot of material moved for less payload. Weather my backside!
Their definition of cash costs depends on the ambient temperature in the Andes on a windy but sunny day ... never the same definition.
Their numbers and excuses are not credible. Hence the huge discount. This morning I thought they were legitimately 4 ~ 5 c undervalued. This afternoon, my hunch is they are destined for single digits.
Not happy.
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