good points about the 2 weaker arrows and the tabloids are onto this angle I've noted.
A couple of reasons why that may not play out against the aoe sp..
1. New Hope. they made it clear a while back they were open to sell their stake to the highest bidder. No mention of the earliest bidder. they are shrewd operators and are unlikely to fold early, rather they are more likely to let that stake be a decisive position if there is a second bid or use it to peg Shell back to under 90% and thus force the sort of deal that happened in the end with PES..remember BG offered an extra 25c to get the AOE stake which took it to over 90% and unconditional acquisition. AOE held their card to the end and why would NHC do any different now when we can all see the current offer is undervaluing AOE...If however they offer them say $7 a share maybe they fold , but as soon as they do that is what we will be looking at as well.
2, AGK will not give up the rights to ATP 364 and the reserves at Moranbah lightly. The sale price would have to be very high imo to encourage them to relinquish what is looking like an increasingly prospective tenement. recent results from Aoe are showing the fort cooper's are going to be prolific and they are looking the goods at several other pilots in 364 ot the north and the south of moranbah..the point being to prise this asset away from AGK , Shell might have to pay at the high end of the 2p range per gj at $2.50 plus..possibly $3.. the minute this happens it simply stokes up the value of AOE for their 3690 pj of 2p.
A figure of $2.50 per gj of 2p already values AOE at $9 billion..
So going after AOE by the back door might ultimately prove more expensive than just getting real and offering us $7 or $8 a share
AOE Price at posting:
$5.03 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
