If going after AOE via the "back door" was really an option then...

If going after AOE via the "back door" was really an option then it would already have happened. The fact that NHC haven't been approached suggests that Shell etc know NHC wouldn't fold cheaply and therefore would have a figure in mind that they believe would get them over the line including the New hope stake. That figure cant be this one otherwise they would have done the deal with an option for the NHC stake in the first place.

The fact that the hedgies are churning it with the preponderance of "negative" spin stories being seeded into the low brow press suggests the smart money knows a sweetener will happen. It wont begin with a 10 but it wont begin with a 4 either. Somewhere above $6 with the international spin off on top is most likely imo