Originally posted by muzzab
“Btw, just out of interest, if yNAGs get PASS Contract/s eg for the Metro Rail at what price would you expect to be able to buy NAGs Shares or be prepared to pay, after such was made known to the market?”
Looking back at recent history could give us some clues JB.
Talk of the use of NAG’s pits for storage of PASS dates back to 2014, and since late 2015 there have been two significant share price events related to news surrounding PASS.
In December 2015 the SP rose 100% in a 2 week period on high expectations of the company receiving PASS contracts in early 2016 – note this was just expectation, no approvals or contracts.
Then in June 2016 the company announced that it had received EPA approval to receive and manage PASS into the Nagambie mine pits (
https://www.nagambieresources.com.au/uploaded/documents/020816/asx210616-EPA.pdf). Again, over a 2 week period culminating in a trading halt, this caused a significant rise in the SP - almost 50%.
So, if I were a gambling man, and given that the current SP is a paltry 7c, I reckon you could confidently expect a rise of
AT LEAST 50-100% on news of NAG receiving a PASS contract.
Any other thoughts NAGsters?
Muzza
If NAGs gets one PASS Contracts then it will get ongoing and the pits will be full within 10 years (because there are multiple future PASS Projects).
The Capacity of the pits is 6.2M tonnes, so even at $50/T (though I think $70-$80 is realistic). 6.2m T x $50 Net is $310M Profit or $31M pa. Say Net of $30M pa Profit fed into a EPS of 12 = $360M. There are about 5M shares (grossed up) so that 72c Share.
That's why it spikes on a sniff (25c plus). On the actual for PASS Contracts I reckon around 70c and I've just shown the basis for that Assumption based on $50/T (72c). I't'll be more than $50/T and SP will be closer to $1 imo.
