Originally posted by JetBlue
If NAGs gets one PASS Contracts then it will get ongoing and the pits will be full within 10 years (because there are multiple future PASS Projects).
The Capacity of the pits is 6.2M tonnes, so even at $50/T (though I think $70-$80 is realistic). 6.2m T x $50 Net is $310M Profit or $31M pa. Say Net of $30M pa Profit fed into a EPS of 12 = $360M. There are about 5M shares (grossed up) so that 72c Share.
That's why it spikes on a sniff (25c plus). On the actual for PASS Contracts I reckon around 70c and I've just shown the basis for that Assumption based on $50/T (72c). I't'll be more than $50/T and SP will be closer to $1 imo.
I know some might say that we have not got a PASS Contract yet for the Metro Rail and that's very true. But we haven't lost one yet either, which is equally true (apart from Pre-Works which has been a total cock up). Bulk PASS is a different story and I think NAGs remains the front runner if the Environmental Impact Statement is to be taken seriously.
