My best guess is that the worst is behind them. I have certainly been proved wrong enough times not to be certain of that though.
If you are asking should you buy then we can't help.
Most people agree that it all comes down to WIP to cash conversion and how conservative the assessments are.
If the profits are anywhere close to what is stated then $2-3 is certainly not out of the question. On the other hand if it is a fraud then it's only worth the cashflows and there are more writedowns to come.
Perhaps below today's price in that case.
The market has been unsure and disinclined to trust the "black box" of earnings. It's also illiquid I would say, a large buyer going in can therefore move the price.
Whether that buyer is a shrewd investor or a greater fool I can't say. It has been my experience buying undervalued stocks that this is what happens, years of decline and then a lot of movement all at once. The market will do nothing and then one day wake up to a mistake it has made in umdervaluing a stock.
That's why I don't waste time with technical analysis, time in rather than timing the market is the way foward.
In times of rising share prices it pays to be pessimistic and check your assumptions. I bought in because I believed it was oversold on SGH fears, that it probably wasn't a fraud and it was priced so very low as to hold no risk.
Now there is a lot more risk in buying or holding but it seems unlikely, I mean the most common criticism of speculative fee lawyers is that they cherry pick - not that they take on a lot of cases which they can't win.
That argument still doesn't sound right to me, or the argument that there's no future in the industry.
It's not clear to what extent SGH overstated WIP but their Australian business is now losing money. That could be because they overpaid for acquisitions or because staff jumped ship as it sank under Quindell.
The ability to acquire new companies depends on those cashflows arriving and the stockprice settling at a higher level. It's a positive feedback loop with these things.
It was quite bizarre how the price moved after the issue of the report, it makes me wonder if there was something in there I missed as it didn't seem that amazing to me.
Interested in your view Jimi, or are you just another trader/speculator?
SHJ Price at posting:
88.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
