That's one possible scenario I guess Dis. Personally I have another theory (may sound a little bit crazy but in this world who knows).
As I have said before I'm a bit of a conspiracy theorist, I generally tend to think there is a lot more going on than meets the eye. What got me thinking was a story about a week ago stating how much the low oil price was actually hurting Russia and depleting their foreign currency reserves (far more than any of the current sanctions).
This got me thinking, what if this fall in the oil price was actually a financially engineered ploy to help force Russia's hand.... I mean America with their seemingly infinite money supply would have little trouble manipulating commodities futures markets if they saw it in their national interest, and even if other countries knew about it they would probably be complicit to achieve a common goal.
I know we are told that it is an oversupply problem and maybe it is, but it all just seems a little coincidental to me. Prices only started falling mid June after two rounds of pretty ineffectual sanctions had already been implemented. Maybe the US saw it as a politically easier and infinitely more effective option. Interesting to note that only in the last few days Putin has removed 17000 troops from the Ukranian border.
And even though it might seem like a far fetched theory I'm obviously not alone in thinking something along these lines. I noticed an article in the AFR this morning where they mentioned that there were some conspiracy theories doing the rounds that the US has an agreement with the Saudis not to reduce supply for this exact reason.
So you never know, once Putin is sorted out we may actually see prices moving in the right direction again, here's hoping eh... (as I said only a crazy theory)
AOK Price at posting:
18.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
