I think NTC have proven they can build great products, and far more efficiently than their larger competitors. I think Steve and his tech team are world class and thats demonstrated in their track record. Eventually, I’m fairly certain they will have a big ramp in revenues from 5G products.
My uncertainty relates to the lag in revenues from older products coming off and 5G ramping and what the stock does in the meantime. NTC are small and with a fairly concentrated product portfolio/lumpy revenues. If it plays out like they are stating (consolidation year followed by ramp up) then their balance sheet is strong enough to get them through and there’s plenty of upside. If there’s delays then the stock could get a whole lot cheaper as it may look cheap currently on an EBITDA multiple, but its expensive on a free cash multiple.
But at the same time Adtran spend more than NTC’s market cap in R&D each year. And thats one of their smaller competitors. It would theoretically make sense for these bigger guys to acquire some talent, tech and take out a competitor.
NTC Price at posting:
73.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held