BLA 0.00% 18.5¢ blue sky alternative investments limited

Thanks Jimmy C. Appreciate the time you took to reply. Agree -...

  1. 165 Posts.
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    Thanks Jimmy C. Appreciate the time you took to reply. Agree - it is possibly getting interesting here. I love a good fire sale - but not sure I'm charging in just yet.

    Having now read a bit more about BLA, it is interesting to note Glaucus' implied market cap of AUD256m (AUD3.33 per share on 77m shares) in their 'rebuttal report', which they get to by:

    * AUD187m (0.13x Glaucus' AUM estimate of AUD1.464bn); plus
    * AUD100m being the proceeds of the capital raise; less
    * AUD33m debt

    Glaucus then applies a discount to get their target share price of AUD2.66.

    That valuation gives zero for pre-capital raise cash (if any), investments and accrued earnings. I get the criticisms that have been made of the investments and accrued earnings- but 'zero' is possibly too aggressive.

    Now, of course, we have the incredible damage that recent events and announcements have caused to BLA's brand. That's very hard to value - but if it were possible to ignore it for long term purposes and assume that BLA will survive long term - on Glaucus' 0.13x AUM metric, if there is some value in the balance sheet in addition to the capital raise proceeds, we're probably close to a fair value at $4.

    My guess is that there is time to await the AUM report(s) before jumping in.
 
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