Hi SunnyskiesIts actually done pretty much what we expected for...

Hi Sunnyskies

Its actually done pretty much what we expected for a Friday, particularly given the blue chip bounce back. I have pasted this morning's best guess below for your convenience.

You are dead right. The accumulators wait for sellers to build in the 15.5c queue, the sellers then scare other sellers into dipping out at 15c, allowing the patient accumulators to pick up shares at the best possible price above the support level of 14c. The accumulators don't leave a huge buy bid at the 15c level in the queue, as this would give the game away, they let it get very slim, scaring holders into selling at what they think might be the top of the market. That's why intraday selling and buying is so difficult, its very hard to tell reall tops and bottoms without full day data, and your emotions can really get the better of you. I know I've stuffed up about a squillion times before I learnt to trust my end of day (after hours) notes (and, yes even now I still get a rush of blood to the head, selling some of my favourite BHP calls at an intraday peak yesterday thinking they would be cheaper today...nuts).

Given that the accumulators got so much satisfaction out this technique today, with 9.6 million shares being traded at or close to their preferred prices, they will probably try the same trick on Monday. They will get less satisfaction on Monday, and volume will fall again, and then they will have to choose whether to step up the price or keep waiting for a lower and lower daily yield of shares. The risk for them is that the company makes some further announcement before they have had their fill of shares. There is probably a bit out there for them to get because of that Christmas spike. A lot of fairly naive punters got in at too high a price and have spent 3 months worrying, and are now ripe for the plucking, given that the risks inherent in the venture have been largely laid off. The company is obviously worth at least 18c per share based on current market accumulation (as opposed to panic buying) and current sellers who have held over the previous 3 months are really selling after carrying the risk for 3 months free of charge.



Subject: re: timeline of activity
Stock Code: GSE - GOLDSEARCH LIMITED
Posted: 30/03/07 08:38 Hotcopper Radio: GSE on BoardRoom Radio
Posted By: paschal Views: 70
Post #: 1668907 (In Reply to msg #1668805 from elitelifestyles) Sentiment: Buy
IP: 202.161.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: Stock Held
Yes its looking great. You've picked them up right near the bottom of the dip and they'll give you a great return with a bit of patience. The US stock market has finally overcome the fantasy that the entire world economy hangs on US domestic demand for world goods.

The only prediction I have for GSE today is that it won't go below 14c. I'm not sure who and how sofisticated the accumulatros are, but we would normally expect that as the broader market recovers, more money would flow into larger cap stocks today rather than speccies. GSE should consolidate a bit as accumulators try to out wait the sellers into lowering their price. If this happens, you will see it drift back to 14c on low volume.

Having said this the trend strength is now very strong, and if the buyers are less patient as they worry the price could really get out of their reach, they may snatch it today, forcing the price to the 18c mark. It would be unusual for this to happen on a Friday though, so I'm betting consolidation today and more up on Monday.

Cheers
Happy trading.