I don't care if Shell/PetroChina are the only bidders. We control the source, so we're king of the hill! It's similar to taking the corner in Othello, we can't be over-turned, and we decide the direction. From Jan 19 update, Top 20 minus mathews, NHC, davies & barlow don't even make 20%. Us retail holders control more than we think.
The news and brokers are portraying AOE as having the weak hand, it's the other way around in my opinion and i'm sure most of you share the same thoughts. It's typical of bidders to do this to keep pressure on negotiations. All AOE have to do is bring in another JV partner and FL will easily get off the ground.
I'd like to see at least $8+ for domestic assets and the spin-off of AOEI to include the indian assets, $150m cash in bank, and Shell forfeit it's 50% farm-in options.
Also, from memory the QGC deal was conducted during the GFC, albeit it was before the collapse of Lehman.
QGC was bought for $5bn+ and they did not have 3 online power stations, 2 pipeline licenses, desalination facilities or the reserves we hold today.
Keep the faith, it'll take a lot more than $4 to dethrone us.
AOE Price at posting:
$5.02 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held