nearology , whats it worth ?, page-6

Charl, yep, 10k sqkm approx of the total NTU ground. The NTU ground will retain rare earth rights, and only include the other mineral rights. Not sure how this will work - in my view "title is vital" and it will always be a lower valuation than transferring the tenements.

Back to TAM - They do need to get big quick - presently their valuation is low on a $ per ounce basis. The only way to get $100+ per ounce is to have real economy of scale and a big story. That means breaking out of the "organic" growth model so at some point they are going to need to find millions of ounces and capital ($100M+).

So lets not rule out the merger of ABU and TAM outright - if anything I have to give some credit to the rumour mill out of ABU - this one will not die. Initially I thought that it wouldn't be good for TAM until I realised that ABM is still trading at a discount on a $'s per ounce basis also. If you put the two of them together right now at $60 per ounce and 6.3M ounce, it is conceivable that with a capital raising of say $100M (around $15 per ounce) to build/upgrade plant that you could have a company that is then trading at $100+ per ounce that cost $75 per ounce to put together as a merger of equals. For a full takeover of ABU, TAM may need to pay $80 per ounce (25% premium) for them. On a script deal, TAM could then offer a 20 for 1 to ABU shareholders while raising $200M+ to get CT into production at enhanced volumes while waiting for a mining lease on Old Pirate for blending.

At the very least, if TAM can't merge with ABM advantageously, TAM needs to rapidly abandon the "organic growth" model and raise $100M+ for plant (and drilling) so that they can quickly become a 5M ounce company with Central Tanami and Coyote upgraded and producing 250,000 ounce per annum.

My sources tell me that Boart Longyear (BL do all surface drilling for TAM) have had a big presence at Coyote over the past 3 months and they are still on site and drilling at Coyote and GR so there has to be some results pending. November wet season will kill off surface drilling till March 2013 so I figure that will bring an end to BL's stint and a flood of new drill results for November. TAM still have a lot of undrawn debt which they must be using to fund this big last push drill program prior to any capital raising.

The window is opening for $2000 per ounce. If one thing is clear - when windows open in this market they close equally rapidly so TAM need to tap the market before things change again. So they had better be reworking their drilling and block models to extract more ounces and ideally have some cracking new drill result to prime the market with so we don't get clobbered in any capital raising.

Regardless, at 81 cents and $60 per ounce TAM (and ABU) are cheap and even if they are raising capital, it could not be at less than 81 cents.